Exasperated wrote: ↑Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:26 am
Sorry I was not trying to be disingenuous. There are a significant number of asymptomatic people out there and the more you test the more you find. The ONS estimate around 1 in 50 in early Jan which is three time the number of positive tests reported same period.
On a slightly separate note and not pointing any fingers take care when talking about number of COVID deaths especially recent ones. The COVID deaths are those who die for any reason within 28 days of a positive COVID test. As hospital admissions are all tested this means that if you are admitted for any reason e.g. accident/stroke and are one of the 1 in 50 who are positive then die you will be counted as a COVID death even if the death is not related.
Conversely there has been a jump in suicides as a result of lockdown combined with mental health issues and also due to delayed cancer diagnosis/treatment (I know from bitter experience from both of these) which are not counted but are directly due to COVID. These will continue long after COVID deaths are under control. I hesitate to say end here as we just don't know the long term impact.
I consider the excess deaths count which compares the 2021 numbers by week against the five year average for 2015 to 2019 as a better estimate and they are now about 20% lower on average. This applies throughout the UK as all countries use the same methodology.
This is also the reason you cannot directly compare different countries outside the UK numbers (eg Worldometers) as each have a different method of measurement.
As a statistician I despair sometimes in the way that ALL politicians use these numbers as gospel or to their political ends. Every pressure groups seems to want "Me first" in the vaccination queue but the number are clear, age and severe underlying health issues are the main drivers, and governments should not reprioritise as delaying in treating the over 50s, which makes up something like 97% of excess deaths to vaccinate a perfectly healthy under 30 year old will cost lives.
You can probably guess that I have spent many hours analysing these numbers and I am sure many a PhD will be based on all sorts of dicing and slicing the data but we should not forget the impact that each and every death has on families and communities.
Stay safe
Ex
Thank you for the change of tone. Fully agree with this. Yes there’s lots of asymptomatic people out there. As I said for most of the past year only it was mostly only people with symptoms who put themselves forward for a test so I would say my point stands.
Here’s a graphic illustrating purely the excess death rates in some countries. Obviously I can’t verify the data and offer no warranty on it.
Exasperated wrote: ↑Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:26 am
As a statistician I despair sometimes in the way that ALL politicians use these numbers as gospel or to their political ends.
The add a little emphasis on "the numbers" it is clear that you can use/misuse numbers to suit your agenda. I have to put a disclaimer here as some will claim these are not real numbers - the following is for illustrative purposes only!!
Lets say that for every 1000 infections there is 1 death. With the new, more infectious variant there are now 1500 infections and the death jump to 1.5. That is clearly an increase in deaths but NOT, in any way shape or form increase the death rate. There are those who realize this but just and many who will say we are doomed even more than before. Lets say the deaths for that 1500 is 1.3 - the gap between more deadly or not is likely to be more marked - its just the way human perception works. Of course if the number jumped to 1.6 then clearly the more deadly is real. Thankfully the most recent numbers favour the 1.3 scenario but it suits some groups agenda to use the increase in actual deaths and not the decrease in death rate.
Kind of long winded way to show that numbers mean different things to different people and while being accurate misuse does nothing but add more stress to an already stressful situation - and its not just politicians.
Finally - we have had a litany of "experts" for a year. How many people can be considered experts when their favourite words are "I/we do not know"?
Exasperated wrote: ↑Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:26 am
As a statistician I despair sometimes in the way that ALL politicians use these numbers as gospel or to their political ends.
The add a little emphasis on "the numbers" it is clear that you can use/misuse numbers to suit your agenda. I have to put a disclaimer here as some will claim these are not real numbers - the following is for illustrative purposes only!!
Lets say that for every 1000 infections there is 1 death. With the new, more infectious variant there are now 1500 infections and the death jump to 1.5. That is clearly an increase in deaths but NOT, in any way shape or form increase the death rate. There are those who realize this but just and many who will say we are doomed even more than before. Lets say the deaths for that 1500 is 1.3 - the gap between more deadly or not is likely to be more marked - its just the way human perception works. Of course if the number jumped to 1.6 then clearly the more deadly is real. Thankfully the most recent numbers favour the 1.3 scenario but it suits some groups agenda to use the increase in actual deaths and not the decrease in death rate.
Kind of long winded way to show that numbers mean different things to different people and while being accurate misuse does nothing but add more stress to an already stressful situation - and its not just politicians.
Finally - we have had a litany of "experts" for a year. How many people can be considered experts when their favourite words are "I/we do not know"?
To be fair, when the virus kicked off there were many unknowns. Globally unknown, not just in Scotland. When it mutated there were more unknowns. Right now there are unknowns because schools have never gone back with the new Kent strain at 90%, amongst other things.
So the experts know the best that anyone can know and all we can do is what they tell us IMO.
I’ve not had a cold, a sore throat or a sniffle for a year. I bet most folks haven’t. Just goes to show how not mixing with anyone doesn’t just keep COVID-19 at bay. The measures will have kept all contagious ailments at bay.
Problem is Clive, when you do get the annual flu, you will probably be floored for a week.
I have had three friends die since Xmas, two of which had incurable cancer. I have a fourth who has been given less than 6 months. Two of the three who passed away caught Covid (it is alleged) in hospital, so they are officially recorded as being part of the death toll, for those who have died within 28 days of a positive test, irrespective of the fact that they would have died anyway. Its all very sad really.....
Anyone think there will be any holiday flying this summer?
I wouldn't consider travelling abroad until 3 weeks after second dose of vaccine.
For some this would allow them to go abroad this summer, for others like myself then it would later in the year.
I’ll be offski as soon as possible. ie as soon as permissible and potentially enjoyable in the country to where I’m going, with no quarantine when I get back. Like there’s no point in going to Spain when everything’s shut. If somewhere else I fancy is fully open I’ll go there but it wouldn’t be on a package holiday either way.
I’ll have had my second jag by then. Fully expect to have a vaccine passport by that time which will open everything up to all in possession.