LHR R3 revisited

[Clive]

The prospect of a third runway being built at LHR has reared its ugly head again as the UK Govt. announced billions of pounds of infrastructure investment for the south of England.

[FlyGLA]

The prospect of a third runway being built at LHR has reared its ugly head again as the UK Govt. announced billions of pounds of infrastructure investment for the south east of England.

Let me fix that last sentence as there will be no new runway at Exeter or Bristol.

Seriously though, whether we believe this will materialise or not, let’s assume it does, how do we see this impacting GLA?

My main concern is that if a significant amount of additional capacity is created in the South East, airlines will be eager to secure as many new slots as possible. This would likely lead to them positioning more based aircraft at these airports, for example, easyJet could expand its Gatwick base. Unless easyJet places a substantial new aircraft order, these additional aircraft would have to come from existing bases. Even if they do order more aircraft, there's a strong chance they would be concentrated at LGW, leaving little to no opportunity for GLA to secure new routes. Of course this applies to other regional airports too, not just GLA.

Furthermore, with expansion at Heathrow, major airlines will aim to acquire as many slots as possible. Foreign hub carriers may also look to strengthen their presence at LHR, potentially diverting capacity away from GLA (and other regional airports) and significantly reducing the airport’s chances of regaining lost carriers, if it hasn’t already done so by the time the new runway becomes operational. By this I'm referring to airlines such as Air Canada, American Airlines, Delta, United, Virgin, and others.

[Clive]

The prospect of a third runway being built at LHR has reared its ugly head again as the UK Govt. announced billions of pounds of infrastructure investment for the south east of England.

Let me fix that last sentence as there will be no new runway at Exeter or Bristol.

Seriously though, whether we believe this will materialise or not, let’s assume it does, how do we see this impacting GLA?

My main concern is that if a significant amount of additional capacity is created in the South East, airlines will be eager to secure as many new slots as possible. This would likely lead to them positioning more based aircraft at these airports, for example, easyJet could expand its Gatwick base. Unless easyJet places a substantial new aircraft order, these additional aircraft would have to come from existing bases. Even if they do order more aircraft, there's a strong chance they would be concentrated at LGW, leaving little to no opportunity for GLA to secure new routes. Of course this applies to other regional airports too, not just GLA.

Furthermore, with expansion at Heathrow, major airlines will aim to acquire as many slots as possible. Foreign hub carriers may also look to strengthen their presence at LHR, potentially diverting capacity away from GLA (and other regional airports) and significantly reducing the airport’s chances of regaining lost carriers, if it hasn’t already done so by the time the new runway becomes operational. By this I'm referring to airlines such as Air Canada, American Airlines, Delta, United, Virgin, and others.

Yes, if a third runway at LHR does anything at all for Scotland it is to further funnel and concentrate business in London and therefore thwart our international ambitions.

And the gaslighting fools saying it’s good for Scottish exports - no, the addition of more global hub links from Scotland does that and doesn’t cost Scottish taxpayers a packet. We also need direct freight ferry services to various ports in Europe like Ireland has.

[Speedbird Julie]

It's not going to happen. The problem for GLA is much closer to home...

[bill]

Let me fix that last sentence as there will be no new runway at Exeter or Bristol.

Seriously though, whether we believe this will materialise or not, let’s assume it does, how do we see this impacting GLA?

My main concern is that if a significant amount of additional capacity is created in the South East, airlines will be eager to secure as many new slots as possible. This would likely lead to them positioning more based aircraft at these airports, for example, easyJet could expand its Gatwick base. Unless easyJet places a substantial new aircraft order, these additional aircraft would have to come from existing bases. Even if they do order more aircraft, there's a strong chance they would be concentrated at LGW, leaving little to no opportunity for GLA to secure new routes. Of course this applies to other regional airports too, not just GLA.

Furthermore, with expansion at Heathrow, major airlines will aim to acquire as many slots as possible. Foreign hub carriers may also look to strengthen their presence at LHR, potentially diverting capacity away from GLA (and other regional airports) and significantly reducing the airport’s chances of regaining lost carriers, if it hasn’t already done so by the time the new runway becomes operational. By this I'm referring to airlines such as Air Canada, American Airlines, Delta, United, Virgin, and others.

Read somewhere it could take 10 years or more to materialise. The damage to regional airports like GLA could be done well in advance of this if it goes ahead. Didn't we have a Scottish MP (?) at one point singing the praises of a third runway at LHR? Can't mind who it was now. Anyway, I get the economic benefits this will bring to the south east of England,London in particular, but since I don't live there (anymore), I hope this gets knocked on the head from a GLA perspective. We'd end up with 30 daily BA flights to LHR for onward connections as opposed to direct flights from GLA, which we may or may not get with AviAlliance.Feel like GLA has reached a major crossroads in it's lifespan.The next 18 months could be critical.

[Iain]

I see current airlines at LHR are already objecting:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... rd-runway/

The new runway is expected to cost an estimated £20bn, which Heathrow bosses want to recoup through 15 years of upfront charges on travellers. Based on the airport’s maximum capacity of 100m people a year, this would equate to a levy of about £15 per trip. A £25 cut of every ticket cost already goes to Heathrow.

However, the funding proposal is being resisted by British Airways (BA) and Virgin Atlantic, which are reluctant to bankroll a runway that would mainly benefit rival airlines seeking to increase their operations at Heathrow.

I'm also not sure how many rivals - particularly loco ones like EZY - are going to pile into LHR if the charges are £40 per pax!

[Pilot Friendly]

Just been listening to Radio Scotland and they were discussing the third runway at Heathrow. Interesting that Kate Forbes said “She was proud that the SNP had supported Edinburgh Airport to deliver direct routes from Scotland”. I wonder what support was given to Glasgow?

PF

[Clive]

Just been listening to Radio Scotland and they were discussing the third runway at Heathrow. Interesting that Kate Forbes said “She was proud that the SNP had supported Edinburgh Airport to deliver direct routes from Scotland”. I wonder what support was given to Glasgow?

PF

Unfortunately we haven’t had many new routes that could be supported. Hopefully that will soon change.

[Speedbird Julie]

I see current airlines at LHR are already objecting:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... rd-runway/

The new runway is expected to cost an estimated £20bn, which Heathrow bosses want to recoup through 15 years of upfront charges on travellers. Based on the airport’s maximum capacity of 100m people a year, this would equate to a levy of about £15 per trip. A £25 cut of every ticket cost already goes to Heathrow.

However, the funding proposal is being resisted by British Airways (BA) and Virgin Atlantic, which are reluctant to bankroll a runway that would mainly benefit rival airlines seeking to increase their operations at Heathrow.

I'm also not sure how many rivals - particularly loco ones like EZY - are going to pile into LHR if the charges are £40 per pax!

The proposed changes are outrageous. If they want to proceed with the runway they should be forced to finance themselves, not through pax that already pay extremely high charges.

[atuk]

No apologies here for my stance. Bring on R3 if only to avoid overuse and a catastrophe at LHR due to squeezing quarts constantly into pint pots.

It’s in the national interest to do so. lHR is a global world hub with unrivalled connections over the pond eclipsing competitor airports such as AMS,CDG, FRA.

If we can waste billions on HS2 from the public purse the we can certainly stump up for LHR expansion. Andre Evie a better RoI to boot!